0 the quality of being too certain of your abilities or of your chances of success: --
Good preparation can sometimes lead to overconfidence.
He cautioned against overconfidence.
Stanovich (1999) describes studies of knowledge calibration and overconfidence in which coherence rationality is the main issue.
We notice that the anthropic overconfidence bias is strongest for low-probability density (' rare ') events.
This phenomenon was labeled "overconfidence bias" or "miscalibration" and was attributed to confirmation biases or wishful thinking.
Their findings suggest that men's overconfidence leads to excessive trading which causes inferior performance.
To suppress overconfidence and overestimation, questions should be prepared for assessment of an event's probability as well as for its complement(s).
Overconfidence is especially a problem with extreme probabilities, that is probabilities close to 0% or 100%.
One has been called "overconfidence bias," and is defined as mean confidence minus proportion correct (many different phenomena have been labeled overconfidence).
Some biases (overprojection and overconfidence), however, are unrelated to intelligence.
